A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in universities but scarcely any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. Both composes two articles that seek objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the notion that there could be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but each side has got valuable insights to learn from the opposing positions."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
